2023 NFL receiving props and predictions, including a bold pick in Odell Beckham's return to action
After running through the best passing props and rushing props over the last couple of days, we close out our preview of 2023 NFL props with a look at the receiving odds. And one thing you'll notice as we roll through the potential leaders in each category is, well, they're the usual suspects.
The elite receivers are who they are, and that includes Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill. And the top guys who I don't have big expectations for -- Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, etc. -- are hampered by things outside of their control, like injuries and/or suboptimal quarterback play.
So who will the league's top receiving leaders be? These are my predictions.
Most receiving yards
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Prince's Pick: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (+950)
Only two receivers averaged at least 100 yards per game last season: Hill and the NFL's leading receiver Justin Jefferson. But Hill did it while playing several games with a backup and sometimes third-string quarterback. If he gets a full season of Tua Tagovailoa this year -- which I'm predicting he will -- he'll edge out Jefferson this time around. Especially considering Jaylen Waddle on the other side makes it tough for defenses to sell out completely in coverage on Hill.
Odds via FanDuel
Favorite receiving yards over/under
AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Prince's Pick: Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens Over 550.5 yards
Even if Beckham is a total flop in Baltimore and/or Lamar Jackson needs extra time to adjust to a new system, there's a better than not chance the former Pro Bowl receiver crushes this over. The biggest question here is obviously health, but after a full year off and a whole offseason to get back into competition mode, I think the 30-year-old Beckham is fresh and ready to contribute in a big way.
Odds via FanDuel
Most receiving touchdowns
Prince's Pick: Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (+650)
I'm rolling with the boring pick here, but how could I not knowing Chase had nine touchdowns last season in just 12 games played. He might have led the league if not for all the games he missed and it's not a stretch to say that.
The Bengals have so many weapons it's hard to key in on one person -- and Chase is the type of player defenses need to key on in order to stop him from feasting. Good luck with that.
Odds via FanDuel
Favorite receiving touchdowns over/under
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Prince's Pick: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams Under 8.5 touchdowns
Question? Outside of Kupp, who do defenses need to worry about on the Rams offense? Exactly.
This is a risky pick because the last time we saw Kupp healthy for a full season, he led the league with 16 receiving touchdowns. But this is a different Rams team, one that may not even be able to keep Matthew Stafford upright. I'm hammering this under.
Odds via FanDuel
Most receptions
Prince's Pick: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+550)
Kupp is the favorite here, but betting on both him and Matthew Stafford to stay healthy in a season immediately following the year neither was able to stay healthy is asking for a lot.
I'll roll with Jefferson, who has similar odds after leading the league in receptions last season and just as large a role as Kupp in an offense now without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen.
Odds via FanDuel
Favorite receptions over/under
Prince's Pick: Amari Cooper Over 69.5 receptions
Cooper hit this over with a combination of Jacoby Brissett and rusty Deshaun Watson playing quarterback last season. I don't think he'll have much of an issue getting there with likely better quarterback play this year.
This line is actually surprisingly low for someone who has eclipsed it three of the last four seasons, with the exception being his last year in Dallas when he caught 68 passes in 15 games.
Odds via FanDuel